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Xylene Power Ltd. provides professional engineering services relating to energy, electricity, nuclear power and climate change.
Today the paramount challenge facing mankind is preventingthermal runaway.
Earth has two stable infra red emission temperature states, a "cool" state in which the planetary emission temperature is less than 273.15 degrees K and a "warm" state in which the planetary emission temperature is greater than 273.15 degrees K. These two stable temperature states are separated by about 17.5 degrees C.
Thermal runaway is a spontaneous rapid transition from the stable "cool" state to the stable "warm" state. This transition can be triggered by an unusually high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration.
Combustion of fossil fuels causes a non-equilibrium increase in Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration which reduces Earth's thermal infrared emissivity below its long term steady state value. This decrease in infrared emissivity causes net thermal energy absorption by the oceans. The resulting heat circulates, melts near polar ice and liberates methane (CH4) and more CO2. Melting of the ice reduces Earth's average solar reflectivity (planetary Bond albedo) which causes yet more net thermal energy absorption by the oceans. These processes acting together form a positive feedback loop which is causing accelerating planetary warming.
If present trends continue thermal runaway will eventually melt all the polar ice. The resulting change in Earth's average solar reflectivity (planetary Bond albedo) from 0.30 to 0.10 will cause: a planetary thermal emission temperature rise of about 17.5 degrees C, an average sea level rise of over 70 m and a global extinction of all large land animal species including humans. The geophysical isotope record shows that thermal runaway has occurred in the past and that climatic recovery from thermal runaway via natural processes took over 200 thousand years.
The only means of preventing thermal runaway is:
Even after combustion of fossil fuels is halted
Implementation of the much heralded 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Changewill guarantee human extinction via thermal runaway because the fossil CO2 emission reductions contemplated in the Paris agreement will not sufficiently reduce Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration. Due to a combination of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and decreasing local albedo in much of Canada the 1.5 degree C to 2.0 degree C average temperature rise contemplated in the Paris Agreement has already been exceeded.
On November 29, 2016 the Liberal government of Canada demonstrated its complete inability to be guided by basic scienceby approval of the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain Pipe Line expansion from Edmonton, Alberta to Burnaby, British Columbia. The energy, jobs, investment and tax revenue from that new liquid fossil fuel infrastructure investment would be much better realized via a comparable investment in nuclear power capacity.
The concept that Canada can economically gain via expansion of tar sands production is completely preposterous. The contemplated new multi-billion dollar liquid fossil fuel infrastructure will quickly become a stranded asset that will threaten the solvency of Canadian banks and the value of pension funds and life insurance policies.
At the root of the thermal runaway problem is widespread lack of public understanding regarding the effect of cumulative net heat absorption on the planetary solar reflectivity. As long as there is an above equilibrium atmospheric CO2 concentrationthe thermal runaway process will spontaneously run until there is no more polar ice left to melt. The result will be a substantial decrease in solar reflectivity (planetary Bond albedo) that will cause substantially increased solar energy absorption and substantially increased ambient temperatures.
In Canada during the last three decades almost every year has been significantly warmer than the year before. The cumulative warming effects on glaciers, ocean ice, ice roads, permafrost, average air temperature, insect infestations, forest fires and flash floods have been obvious. In the USA the direct costs of sea level rise, floods, storms, wild fires and droughts in recent years have risen by more than $100 billion per year. In the US south-west major aquifers are near depletion.
The future consequences of thermal runaway are immense. The belief that mankind can continue converting fossil carbon into CO2 without major climatic consequences is completely false. In a few decades mankind has released into the atmosphere fossil carbon that natural processes took millions of years to accumulate. Already there are major droughts, land animal species extinctions and mass human migrations from equatorial countries to more temperate countries.
Fossil fuel producers and consumers must face the reality that they are directly responsible for the consequences of fossil CO2 triggered climate change. Continued use of fossil fuels for energy supply and heat production is simply not a viable option. Citizens must do all necessary to make investments in extraction, refining, transportation and combustion of fossil fuels financially unrewarding.
Governments must face the politically difficult decision to leave fossil fuels in the ground and to adopt an appropriate mix of renewable energy and nuclear energy. The optimum energy supply mix depends on the availability and reliability of local sources of renewable energy, the availability and sufficiency of local energy storage and on political stability, public education and work force training.
Problems common to all renewable energy forms are the intermittency and seasonality of renewable energy supply and storing renewable energy when it is plentiful for later use when it is scarce. Energy storage for a few hours is possible but energy storage for weeks or months is usually extremely inefficient and prohibitively expensive.
A mountainous region blessed with consistent rainfall and a low average population density, such as British Columbia or Quebec, can rely on hydraulic energy storage if the population is willing to build and maintain the required large hydraulic reservoirs. Adjacent regions with intermittent solar and wind generation may be able to access this hydraulic energy storage capacity by integrating their electricity grids with the region containing the hydraulic energy storage. However,there are significant constraints on hydraulic balancing of wind and solar generation imposed by dam storage capacity, high and low limits on river flow and impacts on fisheries and indigenous populations.
A related major issue is thatriver water that is used for hydraulic electricity production is river water that is not available for agricultural irrigation or for recharging depleted aquifers. The amount of river water required per kWh for hydraulic electricity production is far greater than the amount of river water required per kWh for nuclear electricity production. As fresh water aquifers are depleted the resulting increased requirement for river water for agricultural irrigation will reduce the amount of river water that is available for hydraulic electricity generation and hence will reduce the hydraulic power available for balancing wind and solar power.
In theory the river water shortage could be mitigated by use of pumped storage, but the practical political problems attendant to large scale pumped storage systems are immense. From a geographical perspective the most obvious place in North America for implementation of large scale pumped storage is between Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. However, there are so many conflicting governmental and water front property interests around these two great lakes that realizing a cost effective pumped storage implementation agreement is thought to be impossible.
The nuclear energy supply alternative requires transparency, political stability, public education, a highly trained work force and year round access to sufficient water for evaporative cooling. Making nuclear power safe and sustainable requires enlightened government policies relating to: fast neutron nuclear reactor technology, natural draft cooling towers, nuclear fuel reprocessing, radioactive material transport and radio isotope storage. Obtaining such enlightened government policies from legislators who lack an advanced science education can be extremely difficult. The legislators respond to irrational demands of voters who usually have little or no understanding of the relevant technical issues. The North American education system has failed to teach the general pubic basic energy related physics and economics. The general public is totally unaware of advances in fast neutron reactors that as compared to CANDU reactors have improved uranium utilization 100 fold and have reduced long term spent fuel storage requirements 1000 fold.
An issue of paramount importance is changing the retail electricity rate structure to financially enable both consumer owned energy storage and displacement of fossil fuels with off-peak non-fossil electricity.
As a result of over a century of heavy dependence on fossil fuels, in most jurisdictions electricity rate revenue is primarily based on measured kWh consumed. However, that electricity rate structure encourages use of fossil fuels in preference to non-fossil electricity even when there are surplus non-fossil kWh available at zero marginal cost. In order for non-fossil electricity to economically displace fossil fuelsthe electricty rate must be primarily based on measured peak kW or peak kVA during each billing period. A peak kW or peak kVA based electricity rate, in addition to encouraging conservation of energy, financially encourages construction and appropriate use of consumer owned energy storage and encourages electricity substitution for fossil fuels when surplus non-fossil electrical energy is available. Measurements of kWh consumed should be used for fairly allocating surplus non-fossil electrical energy to parties equiped for energy storage and/or fossil fuel displacement and/or time insensitive electrolytic chemical processing.
Changing the electricity billing methodology involves transition issues relating to consumer education. Consumers must be taught that to reduce electricity and fuel costs they should invest in energy storage, load management and hybrid heating (fossil fuel displacement) equipment. That education process will take several years.
This web site contains over 160 energy, electricity and climate change related web pages, most of which are accessible via six tables of contents titled:
ENERGY AND SOCIETY;
Hydrocarbon pipeline related matters are included in the ELECTRICITY section under the heading:
ENERGY TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION.
Synthetic liquid hydrocarbon fuel production matters are included in the ELECTRICITY section under the heading:
Today, in spite of decades of overwhelming scientific evidence, most governments have failed to adopt the energy system changes required to prevent severe climate change. These governmental failures include:
1) Continued planning and construction of new fossil fuel infrastructure;
2) Failure to impose a tax on fossil CO2 emissions sufficient to keep fossil fuels in the ground;
3) Failure to build sufficient non-fossil electricity generation capacity to replace fossil fuels;
4) Failure to set aside and suitably zone river valleys that are potentially suitable for hydraulic energy storage;
5) Failure to set aside and suitably zone the land corridors needed for the high voltage electricity transmission lines, rail lines and district heating pipelines required for fossil fuel displacement;
6) Failure to set aside and suitably zone sites suitable for the required nuclear electricity generating stations, nuclear district heating plants and commuter railway parking lots;
7) Failure to set aside and suitably zone depleted mine sites and surrounding property suitable for medium and long term nuclear waste storage;
8) Failure to adopt an electricity rate structure that financially rewards appropriate use of energy storage;
9) Failure to adopt an electricity rate structure that enables economic use of intermittent surplus non-fossil electricity generation capacity for displacement of fossil fuels.
10) Failure to plan for and build hydroelectric storage and generation capacity and/or nuclear power capacity sufficient to meet the combined electrical and thermal power requirements at times when the wind does not blow and the sun does not shine;
11) Failure to educate the public with respect to critical energy related matters including:
a) the law of conservation of energy;
b) thermal runaway;
c) the nature of electricity;
d) photon energy quantization;
e) sustainable non-fossil energy sources;
f) constraints on utility supplied power and energy;
g) long distance electricity transmission;
h) energy storage;
i) electricity rate structure;
j) nuclear energy;
k) fast neutron reactors;
l) nuclear fuel reprocessing;
m) nuclear waste disposal.
12) When legislators comprehend the scope of the work that must be done to prevent thermal runaway they often feel overwhelmed and do nothing. Legislative action is driven by public demand and most voters do not understand the basic physics of energy systems and climate change.
Today Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is over 400 ppmv and the atmospheric CO2 concentration is rising at over 2.5 ppmv per year. Humans are injecting fossil CO2 into the atmosphere faster than the rate at which CO2 is absorbed by the oceans and at many times the rate at which CO2 is removed from the oceans by natural processes (formation of carbonate rock and formation of fossil fuels). Prior to the industrial revolution Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration was nearly steady at about 280 ppmv. A consequence of the increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is that Earth is continuously absorbing more radiant energy from the sun than it emits via thermal infrared radiation. This net energy absorption is causing continuous heat accumulation by the oceans.
The heat accumulation is melting: ice that floats on the ocean surface, ice that occurs as land borne glaciers, ice that occurs as permafrost and ice that occurs as fine particles in clouds. This melting of ice is reducing Earth's solar reflectivity (planetary Bond albedo), which is further increasing the rate of net energy absorption. This net energy absorption is gradually warming the oceans. This warming process will continue until the average Earth solar reflectivity (planetary Bond albedo) drops from 30% to 10% with an accompanying planetary emission temperature rise of about 17.5 degrees C.
SPONTANEOUS THERMAL RUNAWAY:
Today Earth is on the threshold of a spontaneous uncontrolled atmospheric temperature rise known as thermal runaway. If the net energy absorption by Earth continues thermal runaway will melt the polar ice caps and will cause Earth's average emission temperature, as viewed from outer space, to rise by about 17.5 degrees C. The geophysical record indicates that this emission temperature increase will persist for about two hundred thousand years and will cause a global large animal extinction. This emission temperature increase is due to a decrease in Earth's average solar reflectivity (planetary Bond albedo) from about 0.30 to about 0.10 caused by the phase change of water from ice to liquid in clouds and in the polar regions. There will be a further emission temperature increase of over 4 degrees C due to the decrease in Earth infrared emissivity caused by increased CO2 and H2O concentrations in the upper atmosphere.
The non-linear equations that describe this warming phenomena have two stable solutions. These two solutions correspond to the atmospheric "cool" state and the atmospheric "warm" state. Thermal runaway is a spontaneous transition from the "cool" state to the "warm" state that is triggered by an atmospheric CO2 concentration which exceeds a threshold of about 433 ppmv +/- 60 ppmv.
Thermal runaway is not an unproven theory. The sedimentary isotope ratio and fossil record shows that CO2 triggered atmospheric thermal runaway occurred about 55 million years ago, during a period known as the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). During the PETM the polar ice caps completely melted and all land animals larger than a mole became extinct. Thermal runaway will not happen over night. It will take several decades to fully develop. However, once underway thermal runaway will be impossible to stop.
A foreseeable consequence of thermal runaway will be uncontrolled human migration into Canada from lower latitude countries to such an extent that there will be insufficient food and serious conflict.
PREVENTION OF THERMAL RUNAWAY:
Preventing thermal runaway requires an immediate and sustained decrease in the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Achieving such a decrease requires an immediate 90% reduction in fossil CO2 emissions by all industrialized countries. The presently planned actions by Canadian governments will not significantly reduce Canada's net fossil CO2 emissions.
There is a failure by all levels of government to recognize that in high latitude countries such as Canada the only technology that can sustainably displace fossil fuels is liquid sodium cooled fast neutron nuclear reactors.
The fossil fuel industry and most elected governments have demonstrated that they are simply unwilling to even consider sufficient reduction of fossil CO2 emissions. The problem is compounded by a voting public that does not understand basic energy issues. In most jurisdictions the renewable energy supply and energy storage options are not sufficient for displacement of fossil fuels, so rapid deployments of advanced nuclear power reactors and corresponding electricity transmission/distribution are essential.
As nuclear electricity generation displaces fossil fueled electricity generation the market value of intermittent renewable electricity generation decreases unless there is sufficient balancing energy storage. Over investment in intermittent renewable electricity generation without sufficient energy storage creates stranded assets having little market value.
The present electricity rate structure in Ontario is principally based on measured kWh consumed rather than on measured peak kW or peak kVA. This existing electricity rate structure discourages construction and use of consumer owned energy storage. At the root of this problem is an erroneous government policy of encouraging minimization of electrical kWh consumption instead of encouraging minimization of peak kW or peak kVA and minimization of overall fossil fuel consumption. The Ontario Long Term Energy Plan does not adequately address displacement of fossil fuels in the heating and transportation markets with non-fossil electricity. The present Ontario government refuses to face the reality that to completely displace fossil fuels the operating nuclear reactor capacity in Ontario must be increased about 10 fold.
An issue that is missing from the Ontario long term energy plan is non-fissil energy for cement production to replace asphalt and for non-combustion municipal waste processing to recycle hydrocarbon resins.
For expansion of nuclear power capacity to make economic and environmental sense there must also be a major investment in conversion from CANDU to Fast Neutron Reactors.
There is insufficient public recognition that the cost of nuclear electricity delivered to an urban load is much less than the cost of equal reliability wind and solar energy delivered to the same urban load. An erroneous electricity transmission rate structure is to blame. Nuclear electricity kWh measured at the generator are more expensive than wind generated kWh measured at the generator but nuclear electricity is 3 fold less expensive to transmit per kWh-km, involves at least 4 fold shorter average transmission distances, does not require expensive seasonal energy storage, does not incur energy storage losses and does not require balancing generation.
These issues collectively make reliable electricity delivered to an urban load from a nuclear power station in Ontario about five fold less expensive than equally reliable electricity supplied by wind and solar generation.
There is also insufficient public recognition that advances in liquid sodium cooled fast neutron reactors (FNRs) and related technology have potentially enabled a large increase in nuclear plant life, an over 100 fold improvement in natural uranium utilization efficiency and an over 1000 fold reduction in the requirement for isolated long term storage of spent nuclear fuel.
For safety in depth each Fast Neutron Reactor (FNR) fuel bundle: passively shuts down if its operating temperature exceeds its operating temperature setpoint and each mobile fuel bundle has an independent discharge temperature control/power shutdown system. Each FNR has many independent heat removal systems.
Properly designed FNRs use a 2.8 m thickness of liquid sodium all around the reactor for neutron shielding to extend equipment life and to avoid production of decommissioning waste.
In order to displace fossil fuel consumption the cost of a marginal electrical kWh to the consumer must be less than the cost of a marginal fossil fuel thermal kWh. To meet this requirement the electricity system revenue must be primarily obtained from a charge proportional to each consumer's metered monthly peak kW or peak kVA. The peak kW or kVA measurement apparatus should have a 4.3 hour step response time and should be automatically disabled at times when the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) needs to sell surplus non-fossil electricity.
Due to repeated political procrastination with respect to a fossil CO2 emissions tax, electricity rates and nuclear power development there is no certainty that thermal runaway can be avoided. Under the best of circumstances the time required to build the nuclear reactor capacity required for total fossil fuel energy displacement in Ontario is over 30 years. During that time interval the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration may cause uncontrollable thermal runaway. However, absent prompt construction of this additional nuclear reactor capacity uncontrollable thermal runaway during the 21st century is certain.
Prevention of thermal runaway requires:
a) A fossil CO2 emissions tax sufficient to cause fossil fuels to be left in the ground;
b) Immediate construction of much more nuclear electricity generation and related electricity transmission capacity;
c) Widespread adoption of liquid sodium cooled fast neutron reactors (FNRs) and nuclear fuel recycling;
d) Interim use of renewable energy when and where readily available for displacement of fossil fuels;
e) Adoption of electricity rates primarily based on each consumer's peak kVA measured at times when electricity generation is in short supply;
f) Widespread adoption of consumer owned behind-the-meter energy storage;
g) Large scale production of synthetic liquid hydrocarbon fuels for fueling aircraft;
h) Large scale production of ammonia, sodium and chlorine for fueling ships;
i) Wide spread adoption of lithium batteries and compressed hydrogen for automotive propulsion;
j) Widespread adoption of electricity and liquid / compressed hydrogen for railway propulsion;
k) Adoption of nuclear district heating and/or cooling in urban areas;
l) Widespread adoption of heat pumps for comfort heating and cooling.
In recent years in Ontario there has been a disproportionate investment in wind, solar and run-of-river electricity generation without corresponding adoption of peak kVA based electricity rates and without sufficient investment in nuclear power, energy storage and electricity transmission. As a result Ontario electricity rates are sky high and much of the renewable electricity generation capacity is going to waste. This waste has been concealed by improper electricity rates and by deceptive accounting by parties with short term political and profit agendas.
Ontario is in the ridiculous position of exporting electricity at about $0.01 / kWh while charging Ontario rural consumers about $0.254 / kWh. This electricity pricing strategy has increased consumption of fossil fuels and has made many Ontario businesses internationally uncompetitive. The Ontario government has repeatedly ignored engineering advice to allow consumers voluntary change from the obsolete electicity rate primarily based on measured kWh to a new electricity rate primarily based on measured peak kW or peak kVA. The new rate would allow economic use of surplus non-fossil electrical kWh for displacement of fossil fuels in Ontario.
In spite of multiple promises, at this time elected governments are unwilling to act to sufficiently reduce fossil CO2 emissions. Hence this author is not confident that thermal runaway will be avoided. In Ontario the Liberal government is unwilling to change the electricity rate structure to reduce total provincial fossil fuel consumption. In North America no major political party is facing the full scope of the required CO2 emission reductions. The political problem in India is comparable. Nowhere in North America is net new nuclear power capacity being built. In every case financial corruption from the fossil fuel industry is driving government decisions. In both Ontario and the USA CO2 emissions are increasing due to replacement of non-fossil nuclear electricity generation capacity by natural gas fuelled electricity generation.
There is only one sustainable path for displacement of fossil fuels and that path requires widespread adoption of fast neutron reactors. In 1994 former US president Bill Clinton, for reasons of political expediency, cancelled the highly successsful US fast neutron reactor development program. The USA, which used to be a world leader in nuclear engineering matters, has totally given up its leadership role. Hopefully the new Trump administration will address this problem.
The failure of elected governments to commit to advanced nuclear power technology is highly troubling. If present governmental behavior patterns continue much of the existing world population will die of starvation within the 21st century. This starvation will be triggered by agricultural failures due to drought and aquifer depletion at equatorial and middle latitudes. As the net absorbed energy and atmospheric temperature continue to rise so also will soil moisture evaporation. Absent sufficient nuclear power for desalination of sea water and for pumping of desalinated water inland, in many places there will not be enough fresh water in the dry season to support intensive agriculture. Already there are substantial reductions in land used for agriculture in Australia, Africa and North America due to lack of irrigation water.
NOTES TO READER:
Most of the material on this web site is suitable for persons with a high school science education. However, some of the material requires the reader to have a deeper understanding of mathematics, physics, chemistry or engineering.
The web page ENERGY AND SOCIETY gives an overview of some of the major issues that are more fully developed elsewhere on this web site.
Visitors to this web site should review the various other tables of contents that are accessible via links located at the top and bottom of each web page.
Web site visitors are encouraged to email constructive comments to the author.
This web page last updated January 14, 2017.
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